One should always be cognizant of outliers — and it’s worth noting that this survey was commissioned by theMaryland Republican Party. It’s also true that polls conducted by Gonzales this cycle have tended to show the race tighter than others — but as the Washington Post noted, Gonzales “does not have a partisan track record.”
With those caveats out of the way, let’s assume for a minute this survey is accurate. This would represent a nine point swing from a week ago, when, according to the RealClearPolitics poll average, Hogan was down by 11 points.
How could this be possible? I mean, what has happened in the last week? For one thing, President Obama — not welcome on the trail in red states — campaigned for Brown in Maryland, where crowds began streaming out during his speech, leaving empty bleachers behind.
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