Republicans hold the lead in key states, but this unanimous agreement among election forecasters conceals an Achilles heel: We all rely on the same poll data. What if that data is off?… Even in the week before the election, polls are not perfect….When errors occur, the outcome tends to be more favorable to the Democrat.
So a Republican Senate is not guaranteed because “Democrats tend to perform better than the polls predict.”
Yes, that’s right, folks. The polls are skewed.
This argument has become common enough that Nate Silver has felt the need, in what must seem like a flashback, to refute the claim that Mark Udall is really winning the Colorado Senate race because “polling has overestimated GOP support.”
No, this is not exactly the same argument that a lot of us made in 2012—myself included—that the polls showing a narrow re-election victory for Barack Obama might be wrong because they were skewed against Republicans. But it’s close enough, and I can tell you that a few of us on the right are experiencing a little bit of skewedenfreude. That’s a special case of schadenfreude—unseemly joy in another person’s suffering—directed at Democrats who find themselves grasping at the same straws we grasped at two years ago.
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